For the purposes of calculating the 4 scenarios for the arisings/disposal of household, civic amenity and industrial and commercial waste and the remaining disposal capacity the following base data and assumptions were used:

There are no reliable figures available for the arisings of industrial and commercial waste. By assuming that 20% of waste deposited at major sites (i.e. sites licensed to accept this range of wastes) is made up of construction and demolition waste it has been possible to calculate a figure (by averaging the disposal figures for the period 1995-1999) for the quantity of industrial and commercial waste disposed of in the Plan Area during 1998/99. This figure is 343,998 tonnes.
It is assumed that industrial and commercial waste disposal will reduce to 85% of the 1998 levels by 2005, in accordance with the targets contained in the NWS. This would see the disposal figure drop year on year from 343,998 in 1998/99 to 292,398 in 2005/6.
Beyond 2005/6 it is assumed that the disposal figure for industrial and commercial waste will remain constant at 292,398 year on year to 2020/2021.
Better data is available for household and civic amenity waste. The arisings figure for 1998/99 is 483,202 tonnes.
It is assumed that the arisings of household and civic amenity waste will increase at a rate of 3% per year, in accordance with the prediction in the NWS. This would see the arisings figure increase from 483,202 in 1998/99 to 612,106 in 2006/7.
Beyond 2006/7 it is assumed that the arisings of household and civic amenity waste will continue to rise at 3% per year, which sees an increase from 612,106 in 2006/7 to 925,865 tonnes in 2020/21.
By deducting the estimated 20% proportion of disposal capacity taken up by construction and demolition waste a remaining capacity figure of 3,084,077 cu.m has been calculated for 1998/99.
Taking account of the additional permitted disposal capacity at the Albion site becoming available in 2001/2, it is assumed that this planning permission will contribute approximately 240,000 cu.m of capacity each year through to 2013/14, giving a total of 1,440,000 cu.m additional capacity up to the end of the Plan Period in 2006/7 and a further 1,680,000 for the period 2007/8 to 2013/14.
The contribution of the Cotesbach landfill site in the Plan Period is included in the remaining disposal capacity figure for 1998/99. Beyond the Plan Period it is assumed that Cotesbach will contribute 200,000 cu.m of disposal capacity per year from 2007/8 to 2014.

The 4 scenarios were presented to the Waste Local Plan Inquiry as a means of assisting the "round table" discussions on waste statistics and potential shortfalls in disposal capacity during the Plan Period. The 4 Scenarios are detailed below, and provide differing pictures of the amounts of waste that might go to landfill and their effects on remaining disposal capacity.

Scenario 1c

In Scenario 1c the prediction is that recycling of household and civic amenity waste will remain at the 11% rate that was achieved in 1998/99. This gives rise to the following Scenario:

	Industrial and Commercial Waste Deposits	Household and Civic Amenity Arisings - subtracting 11% recycling	Total Deposits	Total Recycled	Remaining Capacity plus new capacity	Shortfall In capacity at 2006/7
1998/99 – 2006/7	2,493,985	3,938,872	6,432,857	486,827	4,524,077	-1,908,780

Scenario 2c

In scenario 2c it is predicted that recycling of household and civic amenity waste increases by 1% each year from 11% in 1998/99 to 19% in 2006/7. This reflects the current rate of increase in recycling of these wastes in the Plan Area. This gives rise to the following Scenario:

	Industrial and Commercial Waste Deposits	Household and Civic Amenity Arisings - subtracting increasing recycling rate (1% p.a. from 11% base)	Total Deposits	Total Recycled	Remaining Capacity plus new capacity	Shortfall In capacity at 2006/7
1998/99 - 2006/7	2,493,985	3,732,854	6,226,839	692,845	4,524,077	-1,702,762

Scenario 2c is considered by the three Councils to be the most appropriate scenario for establishing the shortfall figure to be planned for during the Plan Period.

Scenario 4c

Scenario 4c predicts that recycling of household and civic amenity arisings increases from 11% in 1998/99 to 25% by 2005 in accordance with the target contained in the NWS. This gives rise to the following Scenario:

	Industrial and Commercial Waste Deposits	Household and Civic Amenity Arisings - subtracting NWS 2000 Recycling Rates	Total Deposits	Total Recycled	Remaining Capacity plus new capacity	Shortfall In capacity at 2006/7
1998/99 - 2006/7	2,493,985	3,685,455	6,179,441	740,243	4,524,077	-1,655,364

Scenario 6c

Scenario 6c predicts that by 2010 there would be a 75% reduction in the biodegradable element of household and civic amenity waste (estimated at around 60% of all household and civic amenity waste) going to landfill and that the remaining element of non-biodegradable household and civic amenity waste (40%) is recycled at the NWS target of 25%. This gives rise to the following Scenario:

	Industrial and Commercial Waste Deposits	Household and Civic Amenity Arisings - subject to a reduction in biodegradable material (60% of total) to landfill and the 40% non-biodegradable subject to NWS 2000 recycling targets	Total Deposits	Total Recycled	Remaining Capacity plus new capacity	Shortfall in capacity at 2006/7
1998/99 - 2006/7	2,493,985	3,236,908	5,730,893	1,188,791	4,524,077	-1,206,816